If looking at your grocery total makes you feel like your eyes are bulging out not unlike a cartoon, I have some bad news for you: Those same groceries are about to get a lot more expensive and fast. No, I'm not just talking about eggs, either, but rather pretty much every aisle of the grocery store. Why is that? Well, starting on March 4, 2025, imported products coming from Mexico and Canada will incur a 25% tariff, according to President Trump's newest directives.
If that sounds alarming, that's because it is. After all, Canada and Mexico are the largest suppliers of agricultural goods to the U.S. Scan your own pantry (and fridge) shelves, and you'll likely notice no less than a few dozen different items our neighbors produce. In fact, 77% of our fresh produce comes from Mexico and 34% of our fresh meat comes from Canada, all of which (and more) will most likely soon come along with what will feel like a 25% surcharge. So while the immediate impact of the tariffs is still unknown (the brunt of the effects will fall on Mexico and Canada), experts say consumers should anticipate that grocery prices will rise in response.
"It’s going to be difficult to go down an aisle of a grocery store and not see some sort of inflationary effect," Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told The New York Times.
And Target CEO Brian Cornell warned that the company may need to increase prices on fruits and vegetables in the coming days due to President Trump's new tariffs on Mexican exports. In a CNBC interview on Tuesday, Cornell explained that Target heavily depends on produce from Mexico during winter months. “Those are categories where we’ll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days,” he said.
So what's a budget-minded shopper to do? Take note of (and stock up on) the many vital food products that come from both Mexico and Canada as early as possible in anticipation of rising costs (that'll fully take effect in a matter of weeks). Here are some key grocery items to add to your bulk-buy list while prices are still relatively low:
Cereal Grains (& By-Products)
Color me surprised, because I had no clue how many cereal grains (AKA wheat, barley, and oats) that Canada exports to the U.S.—a whopping $1.31 billion dollars' worth. In short, yes, it would be very smart to grab a few more boxes of your favorite cereals and oatmeals, and consider freezing flour for your future self. What this also means? Considering adding a few shelf-stable containers of oat milk to your cart to keep on hand, as many of those oats come from Canadian suppliers.
Avocados
A full 90% of avocados in the U.S. are exported from, you guessed it, Mexico. You might want to be picky about who you invite over for Taco Tuesday, as the guac will cost extra. While avocados are best fresh, there are a few storage tricks you can implement to make them last as long as possible if you buy them in bulk, including this clever TikTok hack. Let's just say that we all might need to lay off the avocado toast going forward.
Beer & Liquor
If Mexico's Modelo (the top-selling beer in the U.S.) and Canadian Whisky are solid parts of your bar cart, now would be the time to make sure you're well stocked up. Especially since beer-making staples (such as wheat and barley) hail from Canada, keeping a few extra six-packs around is just a generally smart thing to do.
Maple Syrup
I always drink my coffee with a little drizzle of Canadian maple syrup, so you know my maple syrup stockpile is healthy. Thankfully, maple syrup is great for bulk-buying as it stays fresh for up to a year once opened (stored either kept in the fridge or freezer), and lasts for two years when kept sealed in a cool, dry place.
Meat
Canada is the largest exporter of meat products to the U.S., so any carnivores out there would be smart to make freezer space for any of your favorite cuts for safe-keeping.
Fresh (& Frozen) Produce
According to the USDA, 88% of Mexico's produce inevitably ends up in the U.S. While it's hard to deduce how much ends up either in the frozen aisle or the produce aisle, it's always a solid bet to stock up on any of the following fruits and vegetables that commonly hail from Mexico, such as tomatoes, spinach, the aforementioned beloved avocados, bell peppers, raspberries, and strawberries.
Sugar
Mexico and Canada are nearly tied for supplying the U.S. with the most sugar, so don't let tariffs get in the way of any of your baking this year. Sugar is more than just a dessert- sweetener, it's a day-sweetener, so consider grabbing that XXL bag of sugar on your next shop.
