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If you thought the recent hike in egg prices was rough, you'll want to sit down for this one. Due to shorter than usual supplies, eggs could start costing us $6 per carton. After the worst avian flu outbreak in three decades hit this May, affecting some 47 million chickens and turkeys, the Department of Agriculture reports that egg production has decreased by 4 percent. While that doesn't sound like much, it equates to 341 million fewer dozens than normal.
This cutback in availability has seriously pushed prices over the last few months. From May to June, the average price tag has jumped by more than 76 percent, according to the Department of Labor. But U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that large eggs currently range from $2 to $4.50 in New York, up from $1.20 at the beginning of the year. And the sticker shock is even worse in the Midwest, where prices have increased 135 percent—jumping from $1.19 to $2.80 per dozen, as reported by market research firm Urner Barry, which also says that "it's been a very volatile and unpredictable day-to-day market."
Consumers don't need to worry about the $6 ticket right away, but prices could reach that limit later on in the year, especially if the bird flu returns. Analysts at BB&T Capital Markets say that they "would not be surprised" if the illness returns this fall—and prices subsequently surge once again.
Avian flu was last detected in mid-June, however it's predicted that it might return as early as October as wild birds migrate and move to the Southeast. The birds most at risk are turkeys and egg-laying chickens. Compound this egg issue with the impending turkey shortage this Thanksgiving and it's going to be one hell of an autumn. Let's hope it doesn't get so drastic that we have to turn to vegan eggs at breakfast time.
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